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线性规划国际市场中埃与橘子贸易方式查抄袭率怎么

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摘要:农业出口在埃及总出口中占很大的比重,2000至2009年期间,年均农业出口产值达16亿美元,而同期埃及出口总额为118亿美元。由于橘子是一项重要的埃及出口农产品,所以了解橘子国际贸易方式与影响因素十分重要,这有助于设计并实行合理的国家与公司的政策与战略以提升贸易水平,尤其是对推动埃及农业出口大有裨益。本论文的作用在于开发浅析埃及橘子出口竞争力浅析的框架,并探讨埃及橘子出口供给与进口需求的较为全面的模型。本论文有三个主要的成果。首先,剖析了埃及橘子国际贸易方式的量与价值。其次,探讨了埃及橘子出口的主要影响因素。最后,本论文总结了最大化埃及橘子出口收益的论述框架及策略。本论文旨在浅析埃及橘子出口。将阐述橘子在世界市场中的近况,尤其是在埃及市场以及区域分布和市场份额。进一步论述埃及橘子的出口优势。本论文还试图找到最大化橘子出口价值的其他策略。结果表明埃及的橘子产量在非洲占第一位。以贸易的角度说,埃及的橘子出口占非洲第三位。埃及橘子的主要输入国是阿拉伯国家、欧洲以及APEC。在阿拉伯国家,沙特阿拉伯是主要的进口国,在欧洲为英国。在APEC为俄罗斯。通过衡量埃及橘子在沙特阿拉伯市场的竞争力显示出埃及橘子出口面对着激烈的国际竞争。基于竞争力的衡量,本论文发现埃及在产量、在沙特阿拉伯市场的渗透力、出口市场份额及出口的稳定性等方面位于前列。另一方面,埃及在出口增加率、出口竞争力及出口依存度等方面占第二位。这些结果肯定了沙特阿拉伯市场的重要量以及维系此市场以满足年度橘子需求的必要性。通过衡量埃及橘子在欧洲市场的竞争力显示出埃及橘子出口增加率位于前列。埃及橘子的产品竞争力占第三位。市场渗透力及出口市场占有率说明埃及橘子出口在欧洲占第四位。基于不稳定指数系数,埃及橘子出口占第三位。出口实力及出口依存度指数表明在埃及橘子在欧洲市场的竞争力相当低。结论表明UK市场具有一定重要量,埃及在UK市场达到了最高的年出口增速(23.4%),高于其他出口竞争国。通过衡量埃及橘子在俄罗斯市场的竞争力显示出埃及橘子出口面对着激烈的国际竞争。基于竞争力测量的浅析得出,在橘子出口国中,埃及出口增加率(32%)最高,竞争力及市场渗透力位列第二,产品竞争力位列第三,出口市场份额位列第四。基于出口稳定性、出口实力及出口依存度指数等得出,埃及在俄罗斯市场的竞争力相当弱。这些结果肯定了俄罗斯市场的重要量以及维系此市场以满足年度橘子需求的必要性。显而易见,在俄罗斯,埃及具有良好的市场渗透潜力,由此,埃及应尽可能地增加对俄罗斯的橘子出口。为了区分决定埃及橘子出口的外国需求因素,在主要市场上,一系列被认为对橘子出口更有影响力因素被区分出来。最能影响埃及橘子在沙特阿拉伯市场需求的因素是沙特阿拉伯以世界市场进口的橘子数量。最能影响埃及橘子在俄罗斯市场需求的因素是卢布与埃及镑的兑换汇率以及俄罗斯以埃及进口的总额。为得到一个关于埃及橘子的理想替代案例,本论文构建了5个线性规划模型。这些模型都能通过各自的目标函数的限定最大化2005-2009年埃及橘子的出口额并且限定条件为埃及橘子的出口数量不大于2005-2009年的平均数量,但是就每个模型各自的替代参数而言,这些模型又彼此不相同。结果表明在所有五种替代案例中,埃及橘子的出口额均大于现有案例的出口额。这意味着通过强制性的限制措施而带来的对现有案例的任何一点转变均能使得橘子出口额得以增加并大于现有出口额。关键词:埃及论文橘子论文竞争力论文线性规划模型论文

    摘要5-7

    ABSTRACT7-10

    TABLE OF CONTENTS10-17

    LIST OF TABLES17-19

    LIST OF FIGURES19-20

    CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION20-26

    1.1 Overview20-21

    1.2 Problem Statement21-23

    1.3 Objectives and Significance of the Thesis23-24

    1.3.1 Thesis Objectives23

    1.3.2 Significance and Contribution of the Thesis23-24

    1.4 Methodology24

    1.5 Data Sources24

    1.6 Thesis Structure24-26

    CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW26-40

    2.1 Introduction26

    2.2 Theoretical Framework of the Competitiveness and Competitive Position Concepts26-35

    2.2.1 Concept of Competitiveness27-28

    2.2.2 Elements of Competitiveness28-29

    2.2.3 Competitiveness Indicators29-33

    2.2.3.1 Market Share Index29

    2.2.3.2 Export Strength29-30

    2.2.3.3 Market Penetration Index30

    2.2.3.4 Export Dependence Index30

    2.2.3.5 Export Stabipty30-31

    2.2.3.6 Price Competitiveness31-32

    2.2.3.7 Production Competitiveness32-33

    2.2.4 Determinants of Competitive Position33-35

    2.2.4.1 Relative Export Price33

    2.2.4.2 Production Stabipty33-34

    2.2.4.3 Export Efficiency34-35

    2.3 Literature Review of the Previous Studies35-40

    2.3.1 Review of Literature in Global Perspectives35-37

    2.3.2 Review of Literature in Egypt Perspectives37-40

    CHAPTER 3: THE CURRENT SITUATION OF ORANGES ALL OVER THE WORLD40-59

    3.1 Introduction40

    3.2 Orange’s Global Area40-42

    3.2.1 Orange’s Cultivated Area by Continents40-41

    3.2.2 Orange’s Cultivated Area by World Countries41-42

    3.3 Orange’s Global Production42-44

    3.3.1 Orange’s Production by Continents42-43

    3.3.2 Orange’s Production by World Countries43-44

    3.4 Orange’s Global Exports44-48

    3.4.1 Export Quantities of Orange by Continents44-45

    3.4.2 Export Quantities of Orange by World Countries45

    3.4.3 Export Values of Orange by Continents45-47

    3.4.4 Export Values of Orange by World Countries47-48

    3.5 Orange’s Global Imports48-52

    3.5.1 Imported Quantity of Orange by Continents48-49

    3.5.2 Imported Quantity of Orange by World Countries49-50

    3.5.3 Imports Value of Orange by Continents50-51

    3.5.4 Import Values of Orange by World Countries51-52

    3.6 Egypt’s Orange Exports in the Global Market52-59

    3.6.1 Development of Egypt’s Orange Exports Volume52

    3.6.2 Development of Egypt’s Orange Exports Value52-53

    3.6.3 The Geographical Distribution of Egypt’s Orange Exports53-59

    3.6.3.1 Arab Countries53-56

    3.6.3.2 EU Countries56-57

    3.6.3.3 APEC Countries57-58

    3.6.3.4 Other Countries58-59

    CHAPTER 4: COMPETITIVENESS AND COMPETITVE POSITION OF EGYPT’S ORANGE EXPORTS (EOE)59-117

    4.1 Introduction59

    4.2 Competitiveness and Competitive Position of Egypt’s Orange Exports in Saudi Arabia59-76

    4.2.1 Competitiveness Indicators of Egypt’s Orange Exports in Saudi Arabia60-68

    4.2.1.1 Price Competitiveness60-61

    4.2.1.2 Production Competitiveness61-62

    4.2.1.3 Market Penetration Index (MPI)62

    4.2.1.4 Market Share Index (MSI)62-64

    4.2.1.4.1 Export Market Share (in Volume Terms)63

    4.2.1.4.2 Export Market Share (in Value Terms)63-64

    4.2.1.5 Export Growth Rate64-66

    4.2.1.6 Export Stabipty66

    4.2.1.7 Export Strength66-68

    4.2.1.8 Export Dependence Index68

    4.2.2 Determinants of Competitive Position for Egypt’s Orange Exports at Saudi Arabia68-76

    4.2.2.1 Describing Determinants of Competitive Position69-71

    4.2.2.1.1 Relative Export Price Index69

    4.2.2.1.2 Production Stabipty Index69-70

    4.2.2.1.3 Export Efficiency Index70-71

    4.2.2.2 Impact of Competitive Position’s on EOE at Saudi Arabia71-76

    4.2.2.2.1 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis South Africa72

    4.2.2.2.2 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Lebanon72-73

    4.2.2.2.3 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Turkey73

    4.2.2.2.4 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Syria73-74

    4.2.2.2.5 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Morocco74

    4.2.2.2.6 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Zimbabwe74-76

    4.3 Competitiveness and Competitive Position of Egypt’s Orange Exports at UK76-96

    4.3.1 Competitiveness Indicators of Egypt’s Orange Exports at UK76-89

    4.3.1.1 Price competitiveness77

    4.3.1.2 Production Competitiveness77-79

    4.3.1.3 Market Penetration Index (MPI)79

    4.3.1.4 Export Market Share Index79-80

    4.3.1.4.1 Export Market Share (in Volume Terms)79-80

    4.3.1.4.2 Export Market Share (in Value Terms)80

    4.3.1.5 Export Growth Rate80-85

    4.3.1.6 Export Stabipty85

    4.3.1.7 Export Strength85

    4.3.1.8 Export Dependence Index85-89

    4.3.2 Determinants of Competitive Position for EOE at UK Market89-96

    4.3.2.1 Describing Determinants of Competitive Position89-90

    4.3.2.1.1 Relative Export Price Index89

    4.3.2.1.2 Production Stabipty Index89-90

    4.3.2.1.3 Export Efficiency index90

    4.3.2.2 Impact of Competitive Position (CP) on EOE at UK Market90-96

    4.3.2.2.1 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Morocco90-91

    4.3.2.2.2 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis South Africa91

    4.3.2.2.3 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Israel91-92

    4.3.2.2.4 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Uruguay92

    4.3.2.2.5 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Cyprus92-93

    4.3.2.2.6 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Argentina93

    4.3.2.2.7 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Spain93-94

    4.3.2.2.8 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Brazil94-96

    4.4 Competitiveness and Competitive Position of Egypt’s Orange Exports at Russia96-117

    4.4.1 Competitiveness Indicators of Egypt’s Orange Exports at Russia96-109

    4.4.1.1 Price Competitiveness96-97

    4.4.1.2 Production Competitiveness97

    4.4.1.3 Market Penetration Index (MPI)97-100

    4.4.1.4 Export Market Share Index100

    4.4.1.4.1 Export Market Share (in Volume Terms)100

    4.4.1.4.2 Export Market Share (in Value Terms)100

    4.4.1.5 Export Growth Rate100-101

    4.4.1.6 Export Stabipty101-106

    4.4.1.7 Export Strength106

    4.4.1.8 Export Dependence Index106-109

    4.4.2 Determinants of Competitive Position for EOE at Russian Market109-117

    4.4.2.1 Describing Determinants of Competitive Position109-110

    4.4.2.1.1 Relative Export Price Index109

    4.4.2.1.2 Production Stabipty Index109-110

    4.4.2.1.3 Export Efficiency index110

    4.4.2.2 Impact of Competitive Position on EOE at Russian market110-117

    4.4.2.2.1 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Greece110-111

    4.4.2.2.2 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Turkey111

    4.4.2.2.3 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Israel111-112

    4.4.2.2.4 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Cyprus112

    4.4.2.2.5 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis South Africa112-113

    4.4.2.2.6 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Morocco113

    4.4.2.2.7 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Spain113-114

    4.4.2.2.8 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Uruguay114

    4.4.2.2.9 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis Argentina114

    4.4.2.2.10 Competitive Position of EOE Vis-à-Vis China114-117

    CHAPTER 5: DETERMINANTS OF DEMANDE FOR EGYPT’S ORANGE EXPORTS IN THE GLOBAL MARKET117-135

    5.1 Introduction117

    5.2 Determinants of Demand for Egyptian Orange in Saudi Arabia’s Market117-123

    5.2.1 Economic Variables118

    5.2.2 Results of Simple Regression Analysis118-120

    5.2.3 Results of Multiple and Stepwise Regressions120-123

    5.2.3.1 Linear Form Trials120-121

    5.2.3.1.1 Results of Multiple Regression Analysis120-121

    5.2.3.1.2 Results of Stepwise Regression Analysis121

    5.2.3.2 Double Logarithmic Form Trials121-123

    5.2.3.2.1 Results of Multiple Regression Analysis122

    5.2.3.2.2 Results of Stepwise Regression Analysis122-123

    5.3 Determinants of Demand for Egypt’s Orange in UK’s Market123-129

    5.3.1 Economic Variables123-124

    5.3.2 Result of Simple Regression Analysis124-125

    5.3.3 Results of Multiple and Stepwise Regressions125-129

    5.3.3.1 Linear Form Trials125-127

    5.3.3.1.1 Results of Multiple Regression Analysis126

    5.3.3.1.2 Results of Stepwise Regression Analysis126-127

    5.3.3.2 Double Logarithmic Form Trials127-129

    5.3.3.2.1 Results of Multiple Regression Analysis127-128

    5.3.3.2.2 Results of Stepwise Regression Analysis128-129

    5.4 Determinants of Demand for Egypt’s Orange in Russia’s Market129-135

    5.4.1 Economic Variables129-130

    5.4.2 Result of Simple Regression Analysis130-131

    5.4.3 Results of Multiple and Stepwise Regressions131-135

    5.4.3.1 Linear Form Trials132-133

    5.4.3.1.1 Results of Multiple Regression Analysis132

    5.4.3.1.2 Results of Stepwise Regression Analysis132-133

    5.4.3.2 Double Logarithmic Form Trials133-135

    5.4.3.2.1 Results of Multiple Regression Analysis133-134

    5.4.3.2.2 Results of Stepwise Regression Analysis134-135

    CHAPTER 6: THE OPTIMAL PLANNING OF EGYPT’S ORANGE EXPORTS IN THE GLOBAL MARKET135-153

    6.1 Introduction135-136

    6.2 Theoretical and Analytical Framework of Linear Programming (LP) Model136-140

    6.2.1 Assumptions of LP Model136-138

    6.2.2 Elements of LP Model138-140

    6.3 LP Models Used in Optimal Distribution of Egypt’s Orange Exports140-143

    6.3.1 Objective Function141

    6.3.2 Constraints141-143

    6.3.2.1 Logical Constraint141

    6.3.2.2 Alternative Constraints141-143

    6.3.2.2.1 The First Model142

    6.3.2.2.2 The Second Model142

    6.3.2.2.3 The Third Model142

    6.3.2.2.4 The Fourth Model142-143

    6.3.2.2.5 The Fifth Model143

    6.4 The Current Plan and the Optimal Alternative Plans of Egypt’s Orange Exports143-150

    6.4.1 The Current Distribution of Egypt’s Orange Exports143-145

    6.4.2 The Optimal Alternative Plans for Egypt’s Orange Exports145-150

    6.4.2.1 The First Optimal Alternative Plan145-146

    6.4.2.2 The Second Optimal Alternative Plan146

    6.4.2.3 The Third Optimal Alternative Plan146-147

    6.4.2.4 The Fourth Optimal Alternative Plan147-148

    6.4.2.5 The Fifth Optimal Alternative Plan148-150

    6.5 Sensitivity Analysis of Export Price in Optimal Alternative Plans150-153

    6.5.1 Sensitivity Analysis for the First Alternative Plan150

    6.5.2 Sensitivity Analysis for the Second Alternative Plan150

    6.5.3 Sensitivity Analysis for the Third Alternative Plan150-151

    6.5.4 Sensitivity Analysis for the Fourth Alternative Plan151

    6.5.5 Sensitivity Analysis for the Fifth Alternative Plan151-153

    CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS153-162

    7.1 Introduction153

    7.2 Development of the Study153-154

    7.3 Conclusions154-160

    7.4 Recommendations160-162

    REFERENCES162-166

    APPENDIX166-197

    LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS197-198

    ACKNOLEDGEMENTS198

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